An Analysis of the Influence of Fisher-Folks’ Perceptions on Uptake of Impact-Based Forecasting Weather Information for Adaptation to Nocturnal Storms

Abstract

One key hindrance to successful adaptation to climate change in poor-low-resourced regions is the continued use of traditional weather prediction methods. To change this story and enhance adaptation in the fisheries dependent villages of Suba-North sub-County in Kenya, The High Impact Weather Lake System (HIGHWAY) project was initiated in 2017 and launched an early warning system called impact-based weather forecasting. Nonetheless, academically sound analyses remain dearth particularly as regards the extent to which current perceptions are pro-or-against uptake of IBF. In the face of continued death toll – 1500 to 5000 casualties annually – due to high incidences of storms, this study, focusing on six beaches where the HIGHWAY WISER Project was implemented, undertook an analysis of the influence of fisherfolks’ perception on IBF on the innovation’s uptake. Four perception variables, awareness, accuracy, relevance, probabilistic dimensions, and spatial/geographic coverage of IBF, were examined. Data was gathered from 412 fisherfolk through semi-structured questionnaires, supplemented by interviews with 30 key informants among policy makers and beach management unit leaders, and further enriched by six Focus Group Discussions with fisherfolk. While the study revealed that 73% of respondents were aware of IBF’s existence, 75% perceived it as accurate, very accurate, or extremely accurate, these varied with category of fisherfolk, type of boat owned, gender of fisherfolk, and type of fishing undertaken. Even more strikingly, knowledge gaps persisted, particularly concerning the probability and spatial-temporal specificity dimensions of IBF. Study revealed more need for intentional multi-sectorial, and fisher-folk targeted interventions in dissemination of storms and other related extreme weather event information. Traditionalism remains a key hindrance but change is a process and with sustained interventions, the story will change for the better. Sustained efforts in awareness raising and training, emphasizing the importance of tailoring weather forecasts to the specific needs of vulnerable fisherfolk populations. Ultimately, the HIGHWAY project represents a promising step towards mitigating the perils posed by Lake Victoria’s treacherous weather conditions.