An Ex-Ante Economic Impact Assessment for Adoption of Transgenic Cassava Varieties in East Africa

Abstract

Cassava has been a major staple in Sub-Sahara Africa for generations, securing several households against food poverty and hunger. However like other tropical crops, cassava has been susceptible to various pests and diseases, thus threatening millions of persons with food insecurity and severe hunger. Most notable diseases have been cassava brown streak virus (CBSD) and cassava mosaic disease (CMD) that in some instances cause up to 100% harvest losses. Fortunately, recent research efforts have used genetic modifications, and engineered Transgenic Cassava Varieties (TCVs) that are resistant to CBSD and CMD. But because these are recent technologies, their economic value has not yet been estimated to inform policy and other stakeholders (breeders, traders, farmers etc.). Using data from Kenya and Uganda, we estimate the ex-ante economic impact of TCVs. Adoption of CBSD –resistant TCVs, would bear a net financial benefit of US$ 436 million in Kenya and US$ 790 million in Uganda over a period of 35 years. This would substantially contribute towards households’ incomes and food security.